台北市九十三年(1897-1989)來年降水量之統計分析

uTaipei > Others > Office of Academic Affairs > 臺北市立師範學院學報 (19-36卷1期) > Item 987654321/5166

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://utaipeir.lib.utaipei.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/5166

Title:	台北市九十三年(1897-1989)來年降水量之統計分析 A Statistic Study of the Taipei Annual Rainfall for the Latest 93 Years (1897-1989)
Authors:	鄧天德
Date:	1991-06
Issue Date:	2011-12-07 11:55:15 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	臺北市立師範學院
Abstract:	中文摘要　　台北市年降水量紀錄迄今（一九八九年）已有九十三年，就各種水文氣象紀錄言，此項紀錄資料已相當長久，足以做為各種統計分析之依據。本文以各種統計方法，探討台北市九十三年來年降水量之特徵。首先檢定台北市年降水量之一致性(homogenety)，亦即探討年降水量之資料是否具有均一性質。其次檢定年降水量之定常性、計算年降水量之各種統計量(statistic)特徵、及探討年降水量之隨機性、長期趨勢及其周期性。　　研究發現台北年降水量具均一性及定常性，適宜應用全數列做各種統計量分析。從以往93年資料中，尚無法發現其未來年降水量變化之趨向。其機率分配非屬於典型的常態形式，但在0.05的顯著水準下，仍可視為常態分配，並可據以求出不同機率之降水量，或各種降水量之發生機率。　　在周期性方面，台北年降水量實由許多不同周長重疊在一起之後所呈現出來之時間數列，因之，從某種程度之周期定義上，認定台北年降水量有各種不同周長之周期存在，自無不妥，但若以全體數列而言，在0.05顯著水準下，發現其並沒有任何周長之周期性存在，而可據以預測未來年降水量。 ABSTRACT 　　The annual rainfall in Taipei has been recorded for 93 years. It is long enough to be used for statistic analysis. The author analyzed the charateristics of the Taipei annual rainfall based on the following analysis methods: (l) double mass curve, (2) the least square method, (3) moving average, (4) run test, (5) autocorrelation, and (6) the probability distribution model. Some conclusions have been drawn as the follows: 　　1.The Taipei annual rainfall for the latest 93 years is of stationarity. In other words, the recorded data has no man-made changes. 　　2.The Taipei annual rainfall can be recognized as a normal distribution at the 0.05 level of significance. Therefor the annual rainfall magnitude of any probability can be predicted based on the normal distribution model. 　　3.there is no significant circularity of any period of years. May be it results from the combination of too many circularities of any long period of time.
Relation:	臺北市立師範學院學報 22期 155-167
Appears in Collections:	[Office of Academic Affairs] 臺北市立師範學院學報 (19-36卷1期)

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.

Loading...