| 摘要: | 中文摘要
運用電腦與作業研究(Operation Research)，根據已知的或假定的程序與數據，以描述重現或研究作戰過程的方法，在以阿戰爭、福克蘭島戰役與近來的美伊衝突中，扮演著成敗關鍵之所繫。實質上，電腦摹擬在作戰方面之應用，可以說是提供了一個「作戰實驗室」，利用摹擬形成的作戰環境、兵力對峙與部署，進行對抗策略和作戰計畫的驗証；預測戰略規劃，戰術作為和戰鬥效果與武器系統的性能；實施作戰系統工程中有關「力、空、時、統、久」等有形戰力與無形戰力因素的整體考量，已將現代科技與軍事結合，提供更為精確之決策依據和預判能力，使戰爭之指導者在廣大的戰場上，可以運籌帷幄，具備指揮控制，協調多兵種協同作戰之繁瑣細節，及時而至當的採取機動，以達成克敵致果之成功公算，証諸英國（福克蘭島之役）與以色列（以阿六日戰爭）實施電腦摹擬之精準與戰果之豐碩。縱觀國內姑息主義之氣息與台獨謬論甚囂塵上，對海峽兩岸之情勢與中共統戰「變與不變之伎倆」缺乏認知。因此，試以擔任「戰爭概論」軍訓教學之經驗，融合資訊科學之基礎，進行「戰爭概論」教學模式之設計與研究，並將研究結果彙編成冊，本研究之目的有三：
一、使「戰爭概論」之軍訓教學內容，結合戰爭理論與電腦摹擬，在終端機上重現戰場狀況與預測戰果。
二、擴充軍訓教學範疇，促進軍訓教官從事「軍事系統工程」之研究，以提昇教學水準，提高教官形象！
三、加速軍訓課本中有關教材、教室與教學方法之重新檢討與修訂。
為達成上述目的，本文首先將電腦摹擬與真實世界之差異與限制條件提出說明，續將模擬理論中主要之統計理論予以簡述，就模式種類研析其功能與如何實施驗証以確保模式品質之方法，再就實施模擬中所應遵循之程序與常用之摹擬程式語言作一介紹。為印証理論與實務之結合，本文最後即嚐試以案例為主題，將「藍徹斯特」作戰定律應用於一場戰爭中，透過問題詰問、電腦程式運作及同學分組研討方式，使讀者有具體的認知與爾後發展類似研究與課程設計之參考。
Abstract
Computerized application on Operation Research is a method to portray, represent, or study War Process basing on Known or Presumed procedures and data, and it has a key role to play in modern wars, including the confrontation between Israel and the Islamic world, the Falkland Battle and the American-Iraqi confrontation which has just ended before long. In fact, application of Computerized Simulation in real-life war may be said to be tantamount to the provision of a War fare Laboratory, where by simulated war environments, deployment of armed forces vis-a-vis both sides in the forefront, verification of Defense Strategies and War Plans, forcasting of strategical planning, tactic behaviorism, of combat capability and weaponry system performance, comprehensive consideration of tangible combat potential in Combat System Engineering as related to factors like "Military Power", "Spacing", "Timing", "Consolidation", "Persistence", in relation to the intangible War Preparedness Elements, has combined modern technology with Military Art to offer a more accurate basis for the decision-makers and as an apt expedient for fore-judgements, this, in summation, can help the commanders of the war-looming-ahead to take control of whatever that accounts in the last eventuality, to enjoy easy command of Commands, Control, Coordination, Logistics involving all branches of the armed forces, so that initiatives may be adopted in a timely, expeditious manner wherever the situation warrants them, and that should help to reach an eventual victory over the enemies, as were eminently justified in the Falkland Battle, undertaken by the British Side, and in the six-day Israeli-Arabian War, undertaken on the Israeli side, in both cases the accuracy owing to computerized simulation was rewarded with admirable outcome of the war. Today here in this country prevalence of appeasement policy has given rise to inroads of the Heresy Taiwan for Independence, gaining grounds from day to day, and obviously that is indication enough of the fact that the advocates for Taiwan for Independence hardly have any notion about the status quo of the Taiwan Strait, letting alone the typically Chinese Communist "What can be bargained for a compromise and what can't" Tactics. So, with my experience in teaching on military training subjects, more specifically on "An Introduction to The Art of War", coupled with my foundation in informative sciences, I have betaken myself to the design and research of pedagogic schemes for this course, and I have pleasure of publishing the result of my efforts as such in volumes, indicated for three objects-in-view:
1. so what that is to be taught on the subject of "An Introduction to The Art of War" in the classroom may be correlated with War Theories and Computerized Simulation as well, so that lifelike combat battle is represented and predicted outcome of the war depicted, on the computer terminal;
2. so that the scope of military training curriculums may be expanded to encompass the officer coach's undertaking in the study of "Military System Engineering", this with a view to boost the teaching efforts and promote the Military Instructor's image at the same time;
3. so as to expedite review and revision of the teaching materials, cases-for-study, and pedagogic approaches covered under military training curriculums.
To these objects-in-mind, I first of all point out the gap between computerized simulated realisations and real-world actualities and constracints, followed by a briefing of the statistic theory that is so essentially a part of the Simulation Theory, next, I break down the models to deal with their function and to reason as to how they have to be executed, verified to safeguard the quality of the models as employed for the study, I also introduce the prodeures to follow as a rule in an Simulation Program, included also are the Simulation Programs commonly applied.
To justify theory in defense of practice, in conclusion I have attempted to apply the Lancaster Theorem of War in a War Event, for classroom case study, through question inquiries, program manipulation and teamwork seminar consultation, it is believed that the students as well as my readers can have deeper insight into the Art of War while my efforts can also serve as a material of reference for development of similar researching tasks, including curriculum arrangements. |
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