A Web-Based Political Exchange for Election Outcome Predictions

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Title:	A Web-Based Political Exchange for Election Outcome Predictions
Authors:	Sun-Chong Wang Ching-Yun Yu Kuang-Ping Liu Sai-Ping Li 李世炳游錦雲
Contributors:	臺北市立教育大學心理與諮商學系
Date:	2004
Issue Date:	2009-07-13 16:10:55 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	Prices form in a free market by the interaction of supply and demand. In a highly competitive industry, prices fluctuate. An exchange market provides an arena for investors to exercise speculative opportunities based on their perception of price movements. We describe an online exchange where political futures contracts are traded. In the design, the liquidation value of a share of political futures contract is determined by the percentage of votes received by a candidate in the election. Such a political exchange was run during Taiwan's general election campaign in March, 2004. A feature of the experimentation is that money is fictitious in the trading. We devised ways to introduce incentives. We report predictions by the exchange that outperform conventional polls.
Relation:	IEEE Computer Society Washington, p.173 - 178
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Psychology and Counseling] Periodical Articles

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